Every year, millions of people study the form in the hope of finding clues that will lead them to the Grand National winner. It is the most-watched horse race in the calendar, a contest that rewards preparation, stamina, jumping ability, and no small amount of fortune.

But beneath the chaos of Aintree’s famous fences lies a set of patterns that, when studied carefully, can help separate genuine contenders from hopeful outsiders in the racing odds. Here are the key trends shaping the 2026 renewal.

Age

The Grand National is no place for the young or the elderly. 10 of the last 11 winners were aged between seven and nine, making this one of the most reliable filters in the race. Horses in that bracket carry the ideal combination of physical maturity and competitive freshness.

Younger horses often lack the experience required to handle 30 fences and four miles of Aintree, while older runners tend to struggle to maintain the consistency of form needed to win at this level.

Market position

Despite its reputation as a race where anything can happen, the Grand National does not ignore the market entirely. Three of the last 11 winners came from the favourite or joint-favourite position, and four of the 11 winners were among the top three in the betting. However, punters should not dismiss bigger-priced runners.

Seven of the last 11 winners were priced at 11/1 or more, reflecting the contest’s competitive and unpredictable nature. A healthy spread across the betting market has been a consistent feature of recent renewals.

Last run

Fitness and form heading into the race matter enormously. Nine of the last 11 winners ran within 49 days of the Grand National, suggesting that horses arriving too fresh or too tired rarely get the job done. Six of the 11 winners had won on their last outing before Aintree, with a further two having placed, meaning eight of the 11 arrived carrying strong recent form.

The route to the race also tells a story. Six of the last 11 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival on their final prep, two each in the Cross Country Chase and the Topham Trophy Handicap Chase, one in the Pertemps Final, and one in the Gold Cup. Two winners used the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse as their final run, and both won that race beforehand, making it a prep route worth noting.

Weights

The handicapper’s role in shaping the Grand National is significant, and the weight data reflects a sweet spot that most winners have fallen into. Nine of the last 11 winners carried between 10st 5lbs and 11st 8lbs.

Horses burdened with top weight face an enormous task, while those carrying very light weights may be doing so because their form does not warrant more. The middle band of the weights consistently yields the winners.

Previous course form

Aintree is unlike any other racecourse, and familiarity with it counts for something. Six of the last 11 winners had at least one previous run at Aintree before winning the National, though only two had previously won at the track.

Experience of the unique fences and the layout appears to give horses an edge, even if a prior victory at the course is not a requirement.

Distance form

This is one of the most decisive trends in the data and one that deserves serious attention when reviewing horse race results across the season. The Grand National is a stamina test above all else, and the winners reflect that. 10 of the last 11 victors had at least five previous runs over three miles or longer, with eight having at least seven such runs.

Eight of the 11 had won at least twice over three miles or further, and five had recorded at least three wins at that sort of trip. A proven stayer with a strong record at distance is an essential starting point when assessing contenders.

Previous chase form

Experience over fences is non-negotiable. All of the last 11 winners had at least seven previous chase runs under their belt, with 10 having at least eight. Nine of the 11 had won at least two chases, and eight had won three or more.

A horse lacking sufficient chase experience is a significant risk in a race as demanding as this one.

Graded wins

Class matters at Aintree, even in a handicap. Eight of the last 11 winners had at least one previous victory in a Grade 1, 2, or 3 race.

The Grand National may be open to horses of varying abilities, but those with a graded win on their record have consistently shown they belong at the top level. It is a useful marker for horses that can handle the biggest occasions.

Season form

Finally, how a horse has been used during the current campaign provides important context. Every single one of the last 11 winners had run at least three times that season before Aintree, confirming that race fitness is essential.

However, nine of the 11 had run no more than six times in the season, which suggests horses that have been over-raced or pushed too hard before April can struggle to find the reserves needed for four miles of National fences. 10 of the 11 winners had recorded at least one win that season before arriving at Aintree.

The ideal profile

Pulling all of these trends together, the profile of a Grand National winner looks something like this: a seven-to-nine-year-old carrying between 10st 5lbs and 11st 8lbs, with at least eight chase runs, multiple graded wins, a proven record over three miles or longer, recent course experience at Aintree, and a win in their current season within the last 49 days.

It is a demanding set of criteria, but then again, this is the Grand National.